Development of a probabilistic seismic microzonation software considering geological and geotechnical uncertainties

Modern seismic risk assessment software includes seismic hazard analysis algorithms or relies on precomputed hazard maps. In both cases, a major step is incorporating the impacts of the local geological and geotechnical conditions. The common practice to address this phenomenon, often referred to as site effect, is to use shear wave velocity (Vs)–depth correlations and a deterministic geological model as a proxy for Vs mapping. The Vs of the top 30 m (Vs30) and often the fundamental site period (T₀) are then used as predictors of the potential amplification of seismic shaking. Recognising that uncertainty in local soil properties inevitably affects the seismic site response, a stochastic approach for evaluating Vs30 and T₀ is proposed herein, considering a combination of probabilistic Vs–depth correlations and a probabilistic 3D geological model. Monte Carlo simulations are then applied to study the impact of the uncertainties on the seismic site characterisation model. The generated stochastic maps consist of Vs30 and T₀ realisations accompanied with spatial distribution of uncertainty as an indication of areas where further fieldwork is needed to improve predictions. The developed methodology is currently being used in a homemade risk assessment software.