Étude d'impact de l'optimisation des règles de gestion en condition de changements climatiques sur le système hydrique de la rivière Manicouagan

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to estimate the potential gains due to optimisation of dam management rules under climate change conditions in the Manicouagan river basin. The method used is a comparison between current and future hydrological cycle model simulations and water resource systems. A delta-change approach was used to generate three climate horizons (2025, 2055 and 2085) based upon a reference period (1971-2000). The delta values were computed following a combination of six GCMs (Global Circulation Model) and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios, for a total of twenty climate scenarios. The water system was simulated using the global hydrological model HSAMI, while the hydraulics simulations were performed with a numerical model coupled to the PPS2 dam management rule optimizer. The model simulations of the twenty scenarios under the three future climate horizons show the impact of climate change on the way the water resource system is managed. The dam management method is strongly conditioned by the large spring flood volumes generated by the melt of the important snowpack on the basin. Climate change will produce a significant acceleration in spring melt timing as well as a strong increase in the uncertainty of its amplitude. Without an optimization of the dam management rules, a desynchronization between the emptying of the reservoirs and the arrival of the spring flood waters will provoke an increase in the probability of unproductive spills. The optimization of the rules considerably reduces these spills as well as the uncertainties associated with them. This optimization procedure does not allow for a further increase in generated energy production (average increase less than 0.5%). The uncertainty associated to this energy production increases considerably with respect to the natural inflows uncertainties.

Date	16 Sept 2011
Original language	French
Awarding Institution	École de technologie supérieure
Supervisor	François Brissette (Supervisor)