Urban drainage systems, already vulnerable to deterioration due to their aging infrastructure, are facing increasing challenges related to climate change, compromising their effectiveness. This project aims to develop a new methodology to assess the impact of climate change on urban runoff. It relies on modeling, using the SWMM software, of synthetic urban watersheds subjected to rainfall data from various meteorological stations, with different durations and frequencies.
In total, 4,860 watersheds with diverse characteristics were evaluated using 30 different time series of rainfall, durations, and frequencies, for 12 meteorological stations in Québec, considering both current and future climates. This represents a total of 3,499,200 SWMM simulations that were generated and analyzed.
The analysis of rainfall parameters (intensity, frequency and duration) demonstrated an increase in peak flow exceeding the rainfall scaling factor, while the increase in runoff volume had a median variation equivalent to the rainfall scaling factor. Meteorological stations in southern Quebec, with long return periods (100 years) and durations (24 hours), showed greater variability in results regarding runoff volume.
A sensitivity analysis (ANOVA) highlighted the significant influence of impermeability, area, and slope on peak flow. Additionally, it revealed that, across all stations, impermeability was the most important parameter concerning runoff volume, with some exceptions where soil type played a more predominant role.
| Date | 19 Dec 2023 |
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| Original language | French |
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| Awarding Institution | - École de technologie supérieure
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| Supervisor | Jean-Luc Martel (Supervisor) & Richard Arsenault (Co-supervisor) |
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Bilodeau, É. (Author),
Martel (Supervisor) &
Arsenault (Co-supervisor),
19 Dec 2023Student thesis: Master's thesis › Master in Engineering: Construction Engineering