Développement d'une méthode d'évaluation de la probabilité d'occurrence des résultats indésirables des projets de construction sociosanitaires par une approche multicritère

Abstract

The evaluation of the probability of occurrence of an event in traditional risk management represents a challenge considering that much of necessary information is difficult, even impossible to obtain for an organization. Moreover, a constant concern for the success of a project leads to identify and take into account the variables which are unrelentingly related to success. In response to a complex dynamics of the environment which influences the management of risks, we approach the concept of risk exposure by having recourse to risk factors that are exogenic and endogenous to the organization. We have developed and applied a method to evaluate the probability of occurrence of undesirable results based on the coupling of the risk factors to a multi-criterion hierarchical analysis. In this direction, the variables made up of factors of significant and influential risks constitute the criteria used in a multidimensional analysis approach to evaluation of the probability of occurrence of the undesirable results. The Hierarchical multi-criterion method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is used in order to structure the approach, to incorporate and quantify the probability of occurrence of the undesirable results composing the risk. The multidimensional aspect of the AHP method makes it possible to take into account, in certain situations, the objective, subjective, quantitative, qualitative, tangible and intangible criteria, that we might encounter in life (Saaty, 1984). This analysis makes it possible to extract quantified indicators associated with success under a holistic view by putting in perspective the success of project management as weil as the success of the project. This approach proved to be a significant support in decision-making in the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of the undesirable results.

Date	17 Dec 2010
Original language	French
Awarding Institution	École de technologie supérieure
Supervisor	Edmond T. Miresco (Supervisor)