Modèle économétrique dynamique basé sur les lois de l'écosystème

Abstract

This work is an application of system dynamics which exposes the ability to balance our short- and long-term economic system with integration of environmental parameters. The flora, fauna and the landscape just like the business world are constantly on the search for this balance by photosynthesis and the predator-prey system. In economics or politics, long-term balance has never reached. Indeed; it is an ideologically oriented dialogue, a fact with an entirely general objective. The endless search for equilibrium between supply and demand in economics is probably impossible, like that of the tranquility of nature in balance. As mentioned, by Yanni Gunnell (2009); Charles Devillers (1996) and Yves Guy (1991), "since the development of theories of evolution, it is the instability seems to be the rule. Return to a "natural balance" seems to be impossible." Analytically, and using the theory of Marx (Boncoeur J.; Thouement H. 2004) unit of the marginal theory is based on the concept of competitive equilibrium, that is to say, the state of an economy in which the compensation between the forces of supply and demand simultaneously determines the quantities and relative prices of goods. Within this Framework of thought, the concept of balance cannot simply be set aside and away from the heart of the environmental theories. Approaches of disparity and balance, stability and instability (ecological and economic) have to be combined. We consider that the behavior of agents is not based on the maximization of an objective function in a neoclassical manner. Also, we limit the economy to the activity of production and consumption. Currency production being part of our model, one of the reasons invoked causing a recession is money supply being higher than demand. The low-interest rates on capital currency and the creation of reinsurance policy for mortgage generate the illusion of lower risk Credit publication. We believe that all companies seek to improve resource efficiency by implementing cost reduction strategies. The market is a perfect reflection of the underlying fundamentals. Natural resources are essential for the economy and prosperity. They give us our raw materials, energy, food, water and land, as well as social and environmental services. The Earth has limited resources, and the use of these resources is putting more and more pressure on our natural environment evolving into global warming, pollution and the degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity. All raw materials can be modified and quantifiable in commercial and utility materials. Using STELLA, we created an economic behavior of agents. Although our model stays balance only in the short term, it gives us the opportunity to rebalance using environmental principles.

Date	12 Aug 2016
Original language	French
Awarding Institution	École de technologie supérieure
Supervisor	Robert Hausler (Supervisor)