The trend is an abstract phenomenon which concerns anyone interested by financial markets. In addition of being abstract, the trend is almost impossible to predict with certainty. These characteristics of the trend are justifying the relevance of our research work. At the beginning of this work, it became clear that a distinction should be made between the different types of trends.
The long-term trend would generally be much more predictable and would meet much more precise criteria, such as government decisions, speculation and expectations, international transactions, supply and demand for goods and services. Short and medium-term trends; in addition of being affected by the factors impacting the long-term trend are also depending on other factors, much less obvious to emphasize. The human factor seems to be an important criterion, whose scope on the trend is almost impossible to evaluate. Our research has focused exclusively on anticipating and detecting short- and medium-term trends.
Our approach was to identify a mix of existing indicators that would combine the following major criteria: statistical performance, speed of signal detection, and the ability to anticipate the trend. Each indicator selected for this study was analyzed under three degrees of volatility (moderate, high, low) and two time frames (weekly and daily). In addition to the observations and proposals made, we have developed a technical analysis tool, which is suffering of the same original limitations as many other new technical analysis tools: mixing or improving existing technical analysis tools. The developed tool is the Ultimate Smoothed Pentuple Exponential Moving Average (USPEMA).
Our study did not elucidate the abstract nature of the trend but proposes avenues with the objective dear to many investors to anticipate the trend of financial markets effectively.
| Date | 10 Mar 2021 |
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| Original language | French |
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| Awarding Institution | - École de technologie supérieure
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| Supervisor | Edmond T. Miresco (Supervisor) |
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Paré, A. A. (Author),
Miresco (Supervisor),
10 Mar 2021Student thesis: Master's thesis › Master in Engineering: Engineering