Estimation des émissions de CO2 à haute résolution spatiale et temporelle pour le transport routier de l'arrondissement montréalais de Saint-Laurent

Abstract

The City of Montreal sets goals concerning its GHG emissions to decrease them by half, below the 1990 threshold, by 2030 and is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. To attain this objective, the city needs GHG emission inventories with a high spatial and temporal resolution to make informed and effective decisions. It is in this context that the carbon map project of the Canada's Research Chair Measuring the Impact of Human Activities on Climate Change at École de Technologie supérieure intervenes. This project aims to create a digital twin of the city of Montreal where layers representing the different GHG emissions at different times will be superimposed. This study focuses on providing recommendations taking into consideration the estimation of CO2 emissions of the road transportation field to create the carbon map in the borough of SaintLaurent. It is set to use the traffic modeling through AIMSUN software made from the origin/destination survey and couple it with emission estimation models: the three AIMSUN environmental models (LEM: London Emissions Model, Panis and al., 2006, and the fuel consumption model) and MOVES. These four emission estimation methods are then compared, and sensitivity analysis are performed to formulate recommendations for their usage in the carbon map. To include the traffic modeling with all AIMSUN environmental models, the modeling had to be modified from mesoscopic to microscopic scale and from Dynamic User Equilibrium (DUE) to Stochastic Route Choice (SRC) path assignment method in the carbon map. The results show that the change in scale has the greatest impact on the inventory results. Overall, the difference is +6% in emission estimates for the microscopic SRC compared to the mesoscopic DUE. For the emission estimation methods, MOVES estimates the highest amount of CO2 emissions (+2% compared to AIMSUN microscopic models, Panis and the fuel consumption model, and +16% compared to LEM) but it also considers more emission phenomena that represent more than 10% of the final MOVES inventory (engine preheating, accessories...). After comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods, either the AIMSUN fuel consumption model or MOVES would be recommended for the carbon map. Further research will then be necessary to study the impact of the traffic model calibration, the adaptation of its parameterization to Montreal, and the automation of the emissions calculation.

Date	31 Mar 2023
Original language	French
Awarding Institution	École de technologie supérieure
Supervisor	Annie Levasseur (Supervisor) & Catherine Morency (Co-supervisor)