Modélisation de scénarios de mobilité sur la carte carbone de Montréal

Abstract

In its Climate Plan, the City of Montreal has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, prioritizing the most emission-intensive sectors. In this context, the Canada Research Chair in Measuring the Impact of Human Activities on Climate Change at ETS is developing the Carbon Map: a high-resolution spatial and temporal tool that quantifies GHG emissions and simulates the impact of mitigation scenarios for awareness and decision-making. This study aims to develop methods for modeling transportation-related GHG reduction scenarios using the Carbon Map. Four specific scenarios have been examined: the promotion of active transportation, increased carpooling, electrification of the vehicle fleet, and a higher ethanol content in gasoline. An initial method has been developed, combining data from the Origin-Destination survey, the AIMSUN traffic model, and the MOVES emission model. The scenarios were applied to the Saint-Laurent district, and the associated reductions in GHG emissions were calculated. The results show that fleet electrification is the most effective individual scenario, leading to a 12% reduction in emissions. When all four scenarios are combined, the total reduction reaches 20.72%. However, localized modeling reveals that certain scenarios, while being beneficial, may cause increased congestion on specific road sections. The methods developed in this study form an initial methodological foundation for integrating mobility scenarios into the Carbon Map. However, incorporating more recent and temporally projected mobility data is essential for producing reliable results. Moreover, future research should develop the methodology to include a wider variety of scenarios.

Date	5 Aug 2025
Original language	French
Awarding Institution	École de technologie supérieure
Supervisor	Annie Levasseur (Supervisor) & Catherine Morency (Co-supervisor)